This week, we enter the first month in the third quarter of 2020, and with the Bitcoin BTC halving hype over, we turn to the technical charts of the BTCUSD following a top-down approach for a deeper understanding of the direction of the bitcoin price.
Bitcoin BTC MINERS’ REWARD
The Bitcoin BTC miners’ reward has been a fundamental driver of the BTCUSD exchange rate over the years. However, a sharp slump in the BTC miners’ reward following the last halving did not result in a similar drop in the bitcoin price, an indication that miners are not willing to let go of their Bitcoin BTC holdings.
At this point, miners would instead hold on to the BTC stash and opt for the borrowing of fiat currency to cover for mining expenses.
Let’s move on to the technical charts of the BTCUSD following a multiple time frame approach.
Above is the monthly chart of the Bitcoin BTC vs. USD highlighting the resistance zone spanning between February 2018 ($11,780.00) and May 2018 ($6427.16) and support zone, which falls within the $4265.00 and $3122.28 range.
The first exit of the resistance zone on June 01, 2018, marked the corrective wave-A after the fifth Elliot impulse wave structure that spanned from January 2015 to December 2017.
A breakout above the bearish accumulation resistance set in December 2018 confirmed the bottoming of the corrective wave-A. It sets out for a corrective wave-B that also topped in June 2019 at $13831.41.
The March 2020 bearish price plunge is viewed as an end to the wave-C as the December 2018 support zone, which served as a springboard, sending the bitcoin price back into the resistance zone.
BTCUSD: Weekly Candlestick Chart
Coming one level down to the weekly time frame, as shown above, the BTCUSD enters the February 17, 2020, resistance zone, and we start to notice a slowing in bullish momentum.
As the bitcoin price now trades above the MA-200 and MA-50 levels, with the stochastic entering the oversold area, bitcoin bulls expect a similar surge in price like April 29, 2019.
However, the newly formed bullish accumulation support ($8630.00) is a level to look out for should the bitcoin price close below it.
BTCUSD: Weekly Heiken-Ashi Chart
The Heiken-Ashi price chart is known to filter out noise from the price chart and help traders clearly identify trends in the form of consecutive bullish or bearish closing bars.
Following a regular bullish divergence that set support at $3,850.00, the bitcoin price viewed from the Heiken-Ashi candlestick failed to close below the MA-200 and set out to form consecutive bullish closing bars.
The bullish formation is similar to the bullish trend that started from January 28, 2019, the current bullish trend form visible price wicks that show a weakness in the bullish trend upon trading within the MA-50 zone.
Lastly, a view from the daily time frame shows the BTCUSD entering a resistance zone established on May 18, 2020, after the hidden bullish divergence setup.
The bulls will have to drive the bitcoin price above the $9966.12 resistance for a continuation of the upswing.
Conclusion & Projections
Though the analysis above leans further towards a bullish trend, and the bitcoin price already trades above the significant $10K round-number mark, we conclude by showing both bullish and bearish outlook below.
Following the higher weekly time frame for direction, the BTCUSD maintains a slowing but bullish trend, going forward into Q3, 2020.
A bearish weekly closing Heiken-Ashi bar or a bearish weekly candlestick close below the $8630 bearish accumulation support will confirm a possible price slump towards the $6K area.